Page 16 - January 2024

EXPERT ADVICE

2024: Overall, I expect the Speaking of mortgages, interest rates will likely
Predictions for the year ahead market to feel more not begin to fall until May 2024 at the earliest.
However, we are also unlikely to see any
stable, with buyers more further rate rises, and competition amongst
What does the future hold for the Scottish property aware of the cost of lenders could mean that we may see slightly
lower rates coming through anyway, during the
market? ESPC’s CEO, Paul Hilton, shares his thoughts first half of 2024.
on what we might see over the next 12 months. mortgages and therefore
being more cautious Tenants who are faced with a shortage of

about affordability. available properties to rent, alongside rising
rental rates, may change tack and decide to step
into the property market as first-time buyers,
lessening the pressure on the rental market.
023 was a remarkable year for the
2 property market, in that we saw a Overall, I expect the market to feel more
very different picture to the one we’ve stable, with buyers more aware of the cost of
come to expect in recent years. The cost-of- mortgages and therefore being more cautious
living crisis, coupled with numerous interest about affordability. This means that some sellers
rate rises affecting the mortgage market, will have to accept offers around or even below
impacted the property market in a variety the Home Report valuation in order to sell.
of ways, as we’ve discussed in detail in our
monthly House Price Reports. I expect sales to be steady, though we will see
a continuation in the increase in the number
While we don’t have a crystal ball and we of homes listed for fixed prices, and the offers-
can’t be certain of what will happen in the over premium will be smaller than in previous
months to come, we can take an educated years, with buyers bidding more carefully.
look at what we expect to happen.
The Scottish Government’s strategy on energy
In 2024, I would expect to see the market efficiency and EPC ratings may have a small
continue in a similar way to what we bearing on the market, as some sellers will be
saw during the second half of 2023, with weighing up the cost of retrofitting to improve
volumes down on the last few years. their property’s rating, versus buying a more
modern home. As long as the government’s
The supply of available properties will proposals are reasonable and proportionate to
increase, as homeowners may decide to the age of housing stock, I do not think this will
downsize or move to an area where property have a huge impact on the market.
prices, and therefore mortgage rates, are
more affordable, but I don’t expect to see I firmly believe that throughout everything
a huge amount of repossessions or ‘forced’ going on in the wider property market,
sales. Some of the more discretionary sellers Edinburgh will continue to be seen as a highly
may defer their decision to sell, and simply desirable place to live, and will continue to
sit tight for a few years until mortgage rates attract interest from overseas too, which will all
are potentially lower. help to keep the local market relatively stable.

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