Page 17 - January 2024
P. 17

EXPERT ADVICE





 2024:      Overall, I expect the             Speaking of mortgages, interest rates will likely
 Predictions for the year ahead  market to feel more   not begin to fall until May 2024 at the earliest.
                                              However,  we  are  also  unlikely  to  see  any
          stable, with buyers more            further  rate  rises,  and  competition  amongst
 What does the future hold for the Scottish property   aware of the cost of   lenders could mean that we may see slightly
                                              lower rates coming through anyway, during the
 market? ESPC’s CEO, Paul Hilton, shares his thoughts   first half of 2024.
 on what we might see over the next 12 months.  mortgages and therefore
            being more cautious               Tenants who are faced with a shortage of

             about affordability.             available  properties  to  rent,  alongside  rising
                                              rental rates, may change tack and decide to step
                                              into  the  property  market  as  first-time  buyers,
                                              lessening the pressure on the rental market.
 023  was  a  remarkable  year  for  the
 2 property  market,  in  that  we  saw  a    Overall,  I  expect  the  market  to  feel  more
 very different picture to the one we’ve      stable, with buyers more aware of the cost of
 come to expect in recent years. The cost-of-  mortgages and therefore being more cautious
 living crisis, coupled with numerous interest   about affordability. This means that some sellers
 rate  rises  affecting  the  mortgage  market,   will have to accept offers around or even below
 impacted the property market in a variety    the Home Report valuation in order to sell.
 of ways, as we’ve discussed in detail in our
 monthly House Price Reports.                 I expect sales to be steady, though we will see
                                              a continuation in the increase in the number
 While we don’t have a crystal ball and we    of homes listed for fixed prices, and the offers-
 can’t be certain of what will happen in the   over premium will be smaller than in previous
 months to come, we can take an educated      years, with buyers bidding more carefully.
 look at what we expect to happen.
                                              The Scottish Government’s strategy on energy
 In 2024, I would expect to see the market    efficiency  and  EPC  ratings  may  have  a  small
 continue  in  a  similar  way  to  what  we   bearing on the market, as some sellers will be
 saw  during  the  second  half  of  2023,  with   weighing up the cost of retrofitting to improve
 volumes down on the last few years.          their  property’s  rating,  versus  buying  a  more
                                              modern  home.  As  long  as  the  government’s
 The  supply  of  available  properties  will   proposals are reasonable and proportionate to
 increase,  as homeowners  may decide  to     the age of housing stock, I do not think this will
 downsize or move to an area where property   have a huge impact on the market.
 prices, and therefore mortgage rates, are
 more affordable, but I don’t expect to see   I  firmly  believe  that  throughout  everything
 a huge amount of repossessions or ‘forced’   going  on  in  the  wider  property  market,
 sales. Some of the more discretionary sellers   Edinburgh will continue to be seen as a highly
 may defer their decision to sell, and simply   desirable  place  to  live,  and  will  continue  to
 sit tight for a few years until mortgage rates   attract interest from overseas too, which will all
 are potentially lower.                       help to keep the local market relatively stable.

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